There are always people creating art, and there is always an audience; therefore, there will always be people selling it.
For some time, I have been reading reports that the art market is down. One of the reasons for stories like this is that the auction houses had not sold for as many billions as they had in past years. Further, the statistics of a decline in the global figures of total sales of art are heavily weighted by the top-tier sales.
The recent cancellation by the Art Dealers Association of America (ADAA) of their annual exhibition in New York “the Art Show”, however has significance. The announcement cast it as “a strategic pause to reassess and strengthen the fair's model” The announcement stated “This decision is not due to financial pressure or lack of exhibitor interest, but rather to realign the fair with the organization's core mission and adapt to the evolving cultural and market landscape.”
Years ago my gallery was a member until the ADAA decided that they would change their focus to members in modern and contemporary art. Though I have absolutely no inside knowledge, if enough of the name dealers were interested in participating, the show would go on. It would appear that dealers are looking to sales venues other than fairs.
The obvious fact that there is no one art market is often overlooked. Different areas of art go in and out of fashion. Over the years we have collected photography, Art Nouveau Furniture and Native American Art. In my next life time, I want to look at posters of the late 19th century, Renaissance manuscripts and Chinese furniture. I could go on and on. Each of these has had its market ups and downs. Dry spells for a dealer in any field are often especially hard since a dealer has to adapt the scope of his inventory as styles and tastes change. The most successful dealers learn to shift with the tide.
Within any given area of art, there has been a widening gulf between the most coveted examples by the artists deemed to be most important and the rest of the field. We collected photographs when they only cost a few hundred dollars, even for artists who were considered important. This was in the 1970s and 80’s. Then, years later, they sold for thousands. Here are a few statements from the web about collecting photography:
“In the first half of 2024, 85% of photographs sold at auction went for less than $1,000, making photography a relatively accessible entry point for new collectors. However, photographs by established and renowned photographers can command much higher prices, with some reaching millions of dollars.
Literally only a handful of photographs have sold for millions of dollars, but that is always what gets attention.
As I have said, often, if you are interested in investment, stay away from the art market. The vast majority of artists in any medium need a second job to make ends meet. Relatively few artists have had major success during their productive years, and it is unlikely that their work will enjoy the often-cited posthumous success of Van Gogh, who is said to have sold only one painting in his lifetime.
Buying a work of art is not like making a decision on a stock where you are judging a category and a specific business. The art market is much more mercurial. There is a reason for hesitation when things start to get so absurd that a banana taped to a wall brings millions. People are not that stupid. If they have money to burn, they may enjoy the fun, but they do not think that they will sell it for more or even keep it on their wall after the hype dies down or the banana rots.
My point is that the art market is not “dying”, but rather that people are not spending as much on big names in troubled, unsettled times, and it is even possible that they are tired of some of the hype that has accompanied high-end auctions.
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